Trends in the mortality of diabetes in Mexico from 1998 to 2022: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose was to analyze age-standardized trends in diabetes mortality rates (DMR) from 1998 to 2022, stratified by sex and Mexican state, and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by sex. STUDY DESIGN: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis. METHODS: Based on the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, E11, E12, E13, and E14 codes of the death certificate, a daily record of mortality was extracted from the death certificate attributable to diabetes as the main cause. From 1998 to 2022, sexes and ages (≥20 years) were used to calculate the crude mortality rates and standardized at the national and Mexican state levels. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model was used to examine age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2005, the age-adjusted DMR increased by 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7, 4.5) for the total population, as shown by the joinpoint regression analysis at a national level; from 2017 to 2020, it increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 0.6, 14.8). The DMR with the highest increase during the study period came mainly from states in the country's southeastern region, 2.3% to 3.7% per year. The net age and period effects showed that mortality increased with advancing age and with going time, respectively; and the net cohort effect revealed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, mainly in men Rate Ratio (RR) = 2.37 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.46) vs RR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.17). CONCLUSION: The DMR increased among older age groups. The period effect showed that mortality increased over time. Furthermore, the cohort effect showed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, especially among men.

Estimating Bordetella pertussis seroprevalence in adolescents and young adults in Mexico using the 2012 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT).

BACKGROUND: Low vaccination rates and under-detection of pertussis infections in adolescents and young adults have an impact on the transmission of pertussis to infants. In this study, the proportion of adolescents and young adults with IgG antibodies against B. pertussis antigens, representing recent infection or vaccination, was estimated in a population-based probabilistic survey in Mexico. METHODS: Sera and data from 1,581 subjects, including 1,102 adolescents and 479 young adults (10-19 and 20-25 years old, respectively) randomly selected from Mexico's 2012 National Health and Nutrition Survey, were analyzed. IgG antibodies against pertussis toxin (PT) were measured with the CDC/FDA ELISA. A subset of 234 samples was additionally tested with Bp-IgG PT ELISA kit (EUROIMMUN AG, Lubeck, Germany). Threshold values from corresponding test kits were used to identify recent infection or vaccination. RESULTS: Overall anti-PT IgG seroprevalence was 3.9% (95% CI: 2.3-6.3); 3.1% (95% CI: 1.9-5.0) in adolescents, and 4.9% (95% CI: 2.2-11) in young adults. Seroprevalence did not significantly vary by sex, socioeconomic status, region or rural/urban location. Compared to the CDC/FDA ELISA, the EUROIMMUN test showed a 76% sensitivity and 88% specificity. The weighted estimates represent a considerable burden of recent infection in adolescents and young adults; however, most adolescents and adults were seronegative and, therefore, susceptible to pertussis infection. CONCLUSION: Since booster vaccination to B. pertussis after toddlerhood is not recommended in the Mexican national policy, anti-PT IgG seropositivity may be reasonably attributed to recent infection. Assessing pertussis seroprevalence requires careful consideration of the diagnostic test threshold interpretation and epidemiological model used.